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Sunday, November 24, 2024

ASEAN stability needs a rules-based order

"We have yet another opportunity to reassert the legitimacy of our victory in the Permanent Court of Arbitration."

 

Another incident in the South China Sea took place around a month ago when the US Navy destroyer USS Decatur had a “close encounter of the unsafe kind” with the Chinese destroyer Lanzhou. The US warship was doing the customary freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) in the area of Gaven Reef in the Spratlys. Meanwhile experts had blamed the Chinese warship’s “unprofessional” maneuver for the near-collision that could have sparked a very complicated situation.

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Following the incident, US Vice President Mike Pence reportedly minced no words in condemning what he described as the “reckless harassment” shown by the Chinese warship. The US, he said, while not keen on disturbing the delicate peace in the region, “will not be intimidated.”

Less than a month later, Beijing announced the operation of a weather observation stations on Fiery Cross, Subi, and Mischief Reefs in the disputed Spratly Islands. The same group of islands had seen unceasing militarization over the past years that even the Philippines’ victory before the arbitral court in 2016 failed to stop or slow down.

The installation of the weather station, according to Beijing, is for the good of the region, with services that include maritime warning and forecast, tsunami alert, weather forecast, and disaster prevention and relief, among others.

China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Lu Kang said, “The projects kicked off this time will provide more public services to countries in the region and more effectively safeguard the security of navigation in the South China Sea and the production and life of the people of littoral countries. As a responsible major country, China will continue to fulfill its obligations and commitments with concrete actions and make due contributions to the security of the South China Sea and for the benefits of people in this region.”

However, analysts are quick to point out that weather stations are also critical in executing military operations.

Looking at Beijing’s track record. China had ignored the ruling of The Hague and seized three Philippine-claimed maritime features and had long converted them into militarized artificial islands. Experts have long attributed China’s behavior to the strategic location and maritime value of the South China Sea in relation to Southeast Asia and the rest of the Indo-Pacific.

Notably, this news comes two weeks before the high-profile visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping and the broader context of the Duterte administration’s professed warmer ties with the Asian power.

Tomorrow, the 33rd ASEAN summit will reconvene in Singapore. The region is still challenged by South China Sea issues punctuated by China’s persistent moves to dominate the region. High on the agenda is the long-delayed Code of Conduct critical for maritime stability.

So far, ASEAN and China have only agreed on a single text and “key modalities” to further negotiate the COC in the South China Sea. Geopolitical experts see that as China succeeds in again delaying a legally binding COC, another year will be gained for their “creeping” expansion strategy.

The ASEAN must therefore put aside protectionism and focus on maintaining its centrality by asserting its influence as an international community. Only a rules-based order in the ASEAN region will preserve the peace and security vital to the continuing growth of the developing economies of its member states.

For our part, we have yet another opportunity to reassert the legitimacy of our victory in the Permanent Court of Arbitration which effectively invalidates the sweeping claims of China that violated our sovereign rights to marine resources within the country’s 370-kilometer exclusive economic zone in the SCS.

We should strongly support the swift conclusion in the protracted negotiations of the Framework for the Code of Conduct and push for the full implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea. China’s moves to change the rules-based order must be loudly opposed.

The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea must be strengthened as the legal framework that will effectively strengthen the ASEAN by upholding the importance of peace, stability, freedom of aviation and navigation. It establishes the basis for settling disputes peacefully and creates a conducive environment for regional cooperation in maritime affairs and thereby creating conditions for fishermen to operate legally, safely and sustainably.

For Beijing’s part, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, during a state visit to Davao City, had expressed his confidence on the Code of Conduct’s impact on regional stability.

“China is ready to work with the Philippines and the countries in the region to enhance cooperation, overcome external disruptions and intervention and conclude COC discussions at another date so that the COC could truly serve as a stabilizer for the South China Sea,” he said.

As an observer, I can’t help but be a bit skeptical.

The long-delayed COC plays well with what analysts have described as a creeping strategy of slowly building its military influence in the SCS with small but aggressive moves carefully executed to avoid a military confrontation.

China will have to do more than just charming tactics.

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