Less than three weeks before the elections, the frontrunners in both the presidential and vice presidential races are not supposed to be where they are. Mayor Duterte is now seven points ahead and Senator Bongbong Marcos has overtaken Senator Chiz Escudero as the frontrunner. Senator Grace Poe is supposed to be our runaway contender but she is now in second place. This situation is compounding political analysts.
Duterte is described as vulgar, a killer, a dictator, a womanizer, to name a few but is surging. Perhaps the Filipino electorate identifies more with him than any of the other candidates. What he is saying seem to resonate with the voters. But why him and not say Ping Lacson or former mayor Alfredo Lim who have the same reputations—tough on crime?
Mayor Lim was known as “Dirty Harry” and Panfilo Lacson was known as a ruthless crime fighter during his stint with Metrocom Intelligence and Service Group during Martial Law. Both tried to go for the presidency but were never embraced by the electorate like Mayor Duterte is now. The mayor, even if he is often vulgar, comes out as honest, down to earth and simple. It could also be because the voting public have grown tired of the usual political rhetoric that no one believes anymore. Mayor Duterte, on the other hand, is different, as we have seen. He does not make the usual promises but says he wants to eradicate crime and illegal drugs in three to six months. People actually believe him.
The other presidential candidates must come out with a new bag of tricks if they want to narrow the gap. VP Jojo Binay and Mar Roxas are still banking on their vaunted party machinery to carry them to victory. It is not only that. In the case of Mar Roxas, the whole machinery of government is under his disposal, yet he continues to languish in fourth place. Mar Roxas has a heavy burden on his shoulders—President Aquino. His biggest drawback, however, is his inability to identify with the masses which constitute the biggest chunk of voters.
Meanwhile, VP Binay is of the belief that a second miracle can happen again repeating his come-from-behind victory in the 2010 elections. In spite of the hammering that he got from the administration, he still has 20 percent of the votes. But with the elections so near, 12 percentage points is difficult to overcome.
Senator Grace Poe has the most realistic chance of defeating Mayor Duterte. It is doable and if her team is able to convince the voters to go back to Senator Poe, she could still win. Her team’s big mistake was to think that being independent with this Galing Puso monicker was enough to propel her to the presidency. Either she overestimated her popularity or underestimated the importance of party machinery in running for high political office. There is of course another way and that is with the use of the VMC or vote counting machine. The team that is able to enlist the services of a group that is in the business of electoral manipulation will win it all.
I suspect that there is also a furious but quiet war going on in this area by all sides. Electoral fraud after all is customary in this country in every election. *
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The administration is scrambling to find ways to stop the rise of Senator Marcos. In spite of all the negative publicity from the “yellow” and international media to demolish Senator Marcos, his popularity continues to surge. Both have never stopped detailing the excessive abuses of his father during Martial Law. Yet, wherever Bongbong Marcos goes, he is being mobbed by people wanting to touch him or be photographed with him. It is as if his father is rising from his grave to give his son and namesake a helping hand.
As Bongbong Marcos grows older, looking at him is like looking at “Macoy” himself. With his long jet-black hair, he is the spitting image of his father. He also talks like his father and even walks like him. There are for sure many academic explanations as to why he is leading instead of those identified with “daang matuwid.” Corruption is still around and some say it is worse. Rampant extra judicial killing and human rights violations are still happening and Filipinos are still poor. During the years of President Marcos, the country was in 77th place as far as Human Development Index is concerned. Now, we are about 112th. This shows that we have in fact become poorer.
But the most likely explanation of his frontrunner status is the so-called Marcos phenomenon. Bongbong Marcos can bank on his solid north credentials because Ilocanos wherever they are, vote solidly. Region 1, 2, the Cordilleras and part of Region 3 are Ilocano country. Mindanao also has many Ilocanos but one that is perhaps more difficult to explain is that he is even leading in Metro Manila, the center of the uprising that sent his father into political exile. This must be driving President Aquino crazy. This election has the potential to radically change the existing political order in this country. In a way, the future of this country really hangs in the balance on who will be elected as president and vice president.
This administration will be leaving a lot of challenges, both domestic and in foreign affairs. It is extremely important that the electorate be allowed to choose their leaders without any attempts by some quarters who might have plans to railroad the choice of the people.
