“The fall of Sara Duterte and the rise of new contenders.”
Sara Duterte’s rise seemed unstoppable. The daughter of a former president, she held the role of vice president beside Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. For a time, she embodied a new alliance of two powerful dynasties in the Philippines. But behind this “UniTeam” alliance, cracks have started to appear—cracks that could unravel the country’s political foundations.
The latest figures from the OCTA Research Group reveal a dramatic shift. Once the most trusted of the nation’s top officials, Duterte now grapples with approval and trust ratings that have dropped to 52% and 59%, respectively. Meanwhile, Marcos, though facing his own dip in popularity, has surged ahead, holding 66% satisfaction and 69% trust. Even more striking, Duterte’s ratings have slipped below those of Senate President Chiz Escudero and House Speaker Martin Romualdez, men once seen as lesser contenders.
What went wrong? How did Duterte lose 31 points in her approval rating over a year? Much of the damage seems tied to controversies over her use of confidential funds as Secretary of Education. The funds, ostensibly for “youth development,” were met with suspicion when Duterte offered vague explanations and evaded questions, even when the military claimed it hadn’t received any support from those funds. Duterte’s deflections and often scornful responses only fueled doubts, raising troubling questions about how she handled taxpayer money.
Then, revelations surfaced that her office spent 16 million pesos on luxury “safehouses” over an 11-day period. Lawmakers, particularly a young group known as the “Young Guns,” pointed out that Duterte’s lack of transparency could be her undoing, alienating even former allies. This erosion of trust runs deep, as young lawmakers, the future face of Filipino politics, call out Duterte’s evasion of accountability—a marked contrast to her father’s “man of the people” image.
Meanwhile, Escudero and Romualdez have deftly sidestepped scandal, steadily climbing the ladder of public favor. Escudero, now polling at 65% satisfaction and 67% trust, has positioned himself as a voice of moderation and pragmatism. His reputation for transparency strikes a chord with Filipinos who feel drained by political drama and scandal. Romualdez, praised for his work ethic and focus on results, has crafted a reputation as a no-nonsense leader. While Duterte’s combative tone has made her seem isolated, Romualdez has quietly built alliances, reinforcing his place as a figure committed to efficiency over showmanship.
The future promises further shifts. If Duterte fails to address the controversies, her ratings could sink lower, perhaps even to the mid-40s. In contrast, Escudero and Romualdez stand poised to benefit. Escudero may see his support rise with his moderate appeal, while Romualdez could gain further momentum through his focus on legislative achievements.
Duterte, however, has options to turn this around. First, transparency is her strongest possible play. Rather than evading the issue, she could hold a press conference, explaining the use of her confidential funds and perhaps even allowing an independent audit. Such a move would show a rare commitment to accountability. Shifting her focus to policies addressing key issues like education reform or anti-corruption could also help restore public support. Additionally, reconnecting with local leaders and her base, especially in areas loyal to the Duterte name, might enable her to rebuild her political footing.
Escudero, too, can solidify his appeal by maintaining his principled, moderate stance. By avoiding partisan conflicts and pushing for transparency legislation on government spending, he could continue to set himself apart as a reform-minded figure. Increased public engagement—through town halls or Q&A sessions—would further enhance his image as a responsive leader.
Romualdez should capitalize on his strengths by focusing on legislative productivity, with an emphasis on impactful, widely-supported legislation that addresses economic growth and job creation. His cross-party alliances have proven beneficial, and remaining neutral in the brewing Duterte-Marcos rivalry will allow him to keep his image as a unifying force in Congress. Taking public stances on national issues like healthcare and education would also reinforce his image as a statesman with a future-focused vision.
Ultimately, Filipinos are at the center of this political tug-of-war. Demanding transparency from all public officials, whether through social media, community forums, or town halls, will remind those in power that the people are watching closely. Civic engagement has the power to hold leaders accountable, to force transparency, and to insist on governance that puts people over political self-interest.
As the political landscape shifts, the stakes have never been higher. Sara Duterte’s ability to confront the challenges facing her could determine whether she remains a strong contender in the race toward 2028. But Escudero and Romualdez, poised to lead a political shift, stand ready to step in where others falter. Yet, as these power plays unfold, one question towers over the rest: will those in power finally rise above politics and serve the people, or will they become mere symbols in a history marked by lost trust?
This is a moment that may define the future path of the Philippines.
