Foreign policy, particularly the escalating tensions in the West Philippine Sea, plays a pivotal role in shaping voter sentiment and influencing candidate preferences for the upcoming 2025 elections.
A recent Pulse Asia survey conducted from September 6 to 13, 2024, shows that 7 out of 10 Filipinos are not inclined to vote for candidates who are “pro-China,” whether in the past or currently.
The survey reveals that 73% of Filipinos said they will not support pro-China candidates in the upcoming 2025 elections. Meanwhile, only 5% expressed support for these candidates, and 23% remain undecided or unsure about their stance.
Josue Raphael J. Cortez, a lecturer at the School of Diplomacy and Governance at De La Salle-College of St. Benilde, told Manila Standard that the survey results reflect Filipinos’ growing awareness of the risks tied to the country’s dependence on China.
He noted that public sentiment has shifted as people increasingly recognize the challenges and consequences of China’s influence, particularly in the context of territorial disputes in the West Philippine Sea.
“To the point that our sovereignty is not merely violated, as well as the Arbitrator’s ruling, but more importantly how the latter is more than willing to utilize force just for it to gain sole rights over the disputed islands,” Cortez stated.
Cortez noted that the outcome reflects growing public trust in the Marcos Jr. administration and its foreign policy stance, particularly the decision to push back against China’s aggressive actions in the West Philippine Sea.
“As the chief architect of Philippine foreign policy, Marcos, Jr.’s decision to uphold the Arbitration’s ruling —along with like-minded nations—is an effective move as it an implicit signal that the Philippines is more than willing to fight for what it possesses despite perils,” Cortez explained.
“At the same time, his statements during the recently held ASEAN Summit vis-a-vis the Chinese Premier propels this stance more, and in turn contributes to a better perception about his tenure as chief executive. Thus, a spillover can be expected from this — and it will not be surprising anymore that those who have anti-China sentiments presently will rally behind the administration’s candidates for next year’s elections,” he recounted.
Martin Penaflor, CEO of Tangere, a research company that conducts surveys on voter preferences for the 2025 elections, emphasized in an interview with Manila Standard that foreign policy significantly influences voter choices.
He cited Francis Tolentino as an example, noting that Tolentino’s strong stance on the West Philippine Sea (WPS) issue has resonated with voters, as it reflects a candidate’s ability to “fight for the country.”
However, Penaflor pointed out a challenge: not all candidates are vocal about their positions on the WPS. For those candidates who do not address this issue, voters tend to shift their focus to other priorities. In such cases, five key factors come into play: lowering prices of goods, increasing job opportunities, raising salaries, and effective drug suppression.
This shift in priorities helps explain why Ping Lacson, Benhur Abalos, and Rodante Marcoleta continue to feature prominently among the top 12 choices for voters, according to Penaflor.
