Both the Philippine peso and local stocks plunged Thursday after the third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth came in below market expectations.
The peso closed at 58.73 against the US dollar, down from 58.66 Wednesday after the results of the US presidential election bolstered the greenback.
The Philippine Stock Exchange index fell below the 7,000 level mid-trading before closing at 7,014.44 Thursday, down 150.98 points, or 2.11 percent, from the previous trading.
The wider all-shares index also tumbled by 78.33 points, or 1.97 percent, to settle at 3,891.64.
The Philippine economy grew by 5.2 percent in third quarter of 2024, slower than the 6.4 percent growth in the second quarter.
Bank of the Philippine Islands (BPI) senior vice president and lead economist Emilio Neri Jr. said a major key factor contributing to the slowdown was the post-COVID normalization of economic activity.
“Industries such as transportation, accommodation, food service and recreation have seen growth taper off as the effects of pent-up demand diminish,” Neri said.
Aside from weak third-quarter GDP, veteran stock broker Jonathan Ravelas said the continued weakness of the peso against the dollar contributed to the market’s decline.
Property index lost the most among the sectoral indices, decreasing by 3.94 percent. Only the service sector closed in positive territory, inching up by 0.05 percent.
Value turnover reached P9.5 billion.
SM Prime Holdings Inc. declined by 5.37 percent to P28.20, while International Container Terminal Services Inc. rose 1.2 percent to P400.
Meanwhile, equities mostly rose Thursday, while the dollar held gains and bitcoin hit a fresh record as markets try to ascertain the consequences of a second Donald Trump presidency after he pledged to cut taxes and ramp up tariffs with an eye on China.
The Trump Trade went into overdrive Wednesday as it emerged the tycoon would return to the White House after beating Democrat Kamala Harris, while his Republican Party gained control of the Senate and looked set to hold the House of Representatives.
The decisive win is expected to pave the way for a series of business-friendly measures such as tax cuts and deregulation, though analysts warn that such moves — along with the pledge to impose duties on imports — could relight inflation.
The prospect of higher inflationary pressure could complicate matters for Federal Reserve boss Jerome Powell as he tries to guide the economy to a soft landing while bringing prices under control.
The central bank is expected to announce a 25-basis-point interest rate reduction on Thursday, but there are now questions over the chances of another next month, and the outlook for the new year.
“Those discussions might have to wait (until) a subsequent meeting and encompass four issues,” said National Australia Bank’s Tapas Strickland.
“Does the election result lead to meaningful changes for economic demand or inflation that warrant a different policy path?; have jitters about job-market deterioration been overstated?; where is inflation headed?; and what is the right level for rates, anyway?”
Still, economists at Citi wrote in a client note ahead of Election Day: “The December rate cut decision will depend on labor market data and we expect a further softening to lead to a 50-basis-point rate cut.”
With Trump expected to once again set his sights on trade, observers said that will be a key issue for Asian governments, and particularly China after Washington and Beijing butted heads on numerous occasions during his first term.
“The primary concern will be around tariffs and trade restrictions, which will have some impact but have been somewhat factored in,” said Joshua Crabb and Colin Graham at asset manager Robeco.
“The offset to this will likely be a more aggressive policy response in Asia, both fiscally and monetarily.
“The first indication of this will be stimulus in China, with the (National People’s Congress) scheduled to finalise on 8 November.”
On Thursday, Chinese President Xi Jinping said the two nations must find a way to “get along”, according to state broadcaster CCTV, adding that “history has shown that China and the United States benefit from cooperation and suffer from confrontation”.
And foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning later said there would be “no winners in a trade war”.
Traders are awaiting the end on Friday of a Chinese government meeting to hammer out a stimulus for the world’s number two economy, with expectations for hundreds of billions of dollars to help local authorities and support for banks to boost lending.
Hopes for a pick-up in growth were boosted Thursday by data showing a forecast-busting jump in exports for October — hitting a more than two-year high — that offset more below-par import figures.
The news comes after Beijing started unveiling a raft of support measures in September aimed at bringing the post-Covid economic malaise to an end.
After a mixed day on Wednesday, Asian stock investors fought to push markets up.
The latest readings out of China and hopes for more policy support pushed Shanghai up more than two percent and Hong Kong two percent higher.
There were also gains in Sydney, Singapore, Seoul, Taipei and Bangkok, while London, Paris and Frankfurt opened on the front foot.
Tokyo pared morning losses to end slightly lower, with Wellington, Manila, Mumbai and Jakarta also off.
The broad gains came after a blockbuster day on Wall Street, where all three main indexes hit new highs, led by a 3.6 percent spike in the Dow.
On currency markets, the dollar held its gains against its peers after surging on the back of Trump’s victory as rate cut bets are pared back and Treasury yields rise.
Bitcoin touched a new high just above $76,475 on optimism about the outlook for cryptocurrencies after the president-elect said on the campaign trail that he would make the United States the “bitcoin and cryptocurrency capital of the world.” With AFP
