Filipinos can determine if they want a merry or sad Christmas, based on how well they continue to comply with minimum public health standards as COVID-19 quarantine restrictions are being loosened across the country.
This is after the Department of Health (DOH) projected Saturday that the country’s active coronavirus cases could drop to as low as 22,000 or go as high as over 53,000 b November 15 – as it warned that complacency in following health protocols could lead to a spike in COVID-19 infections by yearend.
Protocols… The Philippines’ total COVID-19 infections breached 2.8 million on Saturday, after the DOH confirmed 2,656 new cases — the fifth straight day under the 3,000 mark. Active coronavirus cases stood at 34,866.
Meanwhile, the Financial Executives Institute of the Philippines (FINEX) lauded the government’s decision to downgrade the quarantine status in Metro Manila from Alert Level 3 to Alert Level 2.
Philippine National Police (PNP) Chief General Guillermo Eleazar also directed on Saturday police regional offices outside the National Capital Region to prepare for the nationwide implementation of the alert level system for COVID-19 response.
Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said the move to bring down the NCR’s quarantine status to Alert Level 2 was in no way sudden or arbitrary.
“If the situation improves, we can go as low as 22,000 active cases for the whole Philippines by the end of November 15. So, we appeal to our citizens to follow the public health standards religiously so that our cases would not increase this Christmas,” Vergeire said in the weekly Laging Handa program.
The projection was based on the calculation by a DOH team that conducts the Feasibility Analysis of Syndromic Surveillance Spatio-Temporal Epidemiological Modeler or FASSSTER contagion modeling tool as of Oct. 26.
Vergeire said the 22,000-case projection could be achieved if the country maintains the reduced mobility and the slow interval from infection detection to isolation.
But she warned this could still reach up to 52,393 if the mobility level rises.
The country’s current mobility is at 82 percent while the detection-to-isolation period is five days, but Vergeire assured the public that safeguards are still in place.
“The shift was not sudden. We were still able to monitor the situation in Metro Manila, the timeline for our declaration only changed,” she said.
Vergeire noted the decision to ease restrictions in the region was based on different metrics.
“We saw that since last week or two weeks ago, our health care utilization had been decreasing. Now the occupied beds are less than 50 percent,” she said.
The PNP said policemen arrested more than 9,000 quarantine violators in the region on the first day of Alert Level 2.
They have yet to release the breakdown of violations, but a tenth of those were minors who violated curfews in their cities, said PNP Chief Eleazar.
OCTA fellow Guido David said the capital region posted only 358 cases on Friday, followed by Negros Oriental (155), Negros Occidental (119),and Zamboanga (114).
Meanwhile, FINEX president Francisco Ed Lim said in a statement: “We welcome the government’s announcement that the National Capital Region has been placed under Alert Level 2.”
“This is truly positive news for our struggling economy considering that the region contributes more than 30% of the gross domestic product. Even more meaningful, it will help restore jobs and income to our countrymen and enable them and their families to enjoy the Christmas Season,” Lim said.
The NCR has been placed under Alert Level 2 until November 21.
Under Alert Level 2, establishments will be allowed to operate indoors at 50% capacity with additional 10% capacity if they have a safety seal. For outdoors, they will be allowed at 70%.
The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) estimated that the economy will gain P3.6 billion per week when the NCR shifts to Alert Level 2.
“We note that the guidelines mostly limit the benefit of the declaration to the fully vaccinated. In this light, we are hopeful that the government continues its efforts to vaccinate as many of our people at the soonest possible time,” Lim said.
“We strongly urge our countrymen to get themselves vaccinated not only for their families’ sake but also for the country’s sake. We, likewise, urge our people to continue observing the health protocols put in place by the government,” he added.
The Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI), the country’s largest business organization, earlier expressed support for the shift of the NCR to Alert Level 2.
The group said it will allow more businesses “to operate, and restaurants to increase the capacity of allowed diners is a good move, especially now as we enter the Christmas season and there is a surge in consumer spending.”
