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Thursday, October 24, 2024

Toxic politics means economic stagnation

“In Bongbong and Sara, history repeats itself.”

The vice-president, in what are now described as “bizarre” and “unbecoming” statements, has just confirmed something any perspicacious mind would have realized since 2021: that UniTeam was a farce. It was just a slogan, an empty marriage of dynastic personalities.

The latest vice-presidential statements can only mean that:

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First, that she never talked seriously with the president about her personal resentments and promises unkept, which shows they were truly never “friends” in the right sense of that word.

Second, neither did she take up with him what she now belatedly label as his “incompetence”, nor his seeming lack of empathy. Did she think it unbecoming, or she did not feel that they were close at all?

Third, when the public attacks on her person, triggered by those around the president became quite strident, the president with all his awesome power and influence, never intervened to maintain political peace, not even “friendly” relations.

Again, a powerful friend is expected to rein in his sycophants if he truly was a friend. In our culture, which James Fallows aptly described as “damaged”, friends protect friends.

Which is why Davao thinks that the demolition of their Inday Sara could not happen without the blessings of the present “king” that they helped put on the throne.

Seen from the perspective of the post-Marcos I era, these political marriages never really last. The Marcos-Duterte marriage is the latest example.

In a book I am writing, I recalled the fate of the Cory and Doy snap election “unity”. Their common goal was to end the Marcos dictatorship. While there was some loftiness in purpose, there never was unity in the details of governance and policy after victory was achieved. Agreements on power-sharing made were violated the day after Edsa Uno.

Eventually the dam of Doy’s resentment at being treated like a doormat by Cory’s close-in acolytes and her nonchalant attitude towards these broke.

In Bongbong and Sara, history repeats itself.

It was different when FVR and Erap triumphed in 1992. The president squeaked to victory; the vice-president led comfortably. The presidential acolytes never liked the upstart and they planted landmines across his path to 1998, but the popular movie actor bided his time and was publicly supportive of FVR until 1997 when attempts to alter the Constitution were instigated. Erap’s patience paid off, aided by FVR’s choice of the unwinnable Joe de V.

Erap won, but Joe de V’s Gloria became vice-president, and after the jueteng scandal, she succeeded as president.

Gloria wisely chose a vice-president who would not be a threat to her, and in 2004, when she ran, she chose the popular broadcast icon Noli de Castro who even when there was a “perfect storm” with Hello Garci, stayed loyal and unperturbed.

In 2010, PNoy won hands-down, but his luckless team-mate was side-swept by a Cory loyalist, Jojo Binay, who was supportive of the president throughout their six year-term. Still, PNoy chose his loyal party-mate to succeed him, yet failed to do what his mother before him did in 1992, which was to pull all stops to make her chosen win.

An upstart from Mindanao swept aside both the incumbent vice-president and PNoy’s endorsee, as well as another candidate running with little else as credential than the memory of a deceased movie hero “cheated” twelve years back.

But the first president from Mindanao failed to do what Cory in 1992 did, nor FVR and PNoy tried but failed to achieve, which was to anoint a successor and ensure that he won. That would have been the ideal scenario for continuity, considering that he was exiting with extremely high approval and trust ratings.

He may have deemed it inappropriate to foist his Davao dynasty into the after-life of his presidency. But it required that he choose a champion for continuity, a Duterte 2.0 who at the very least, would keep the political peace between new and old.

He initially floated the possibility of his chief aide, a senator made popular by “malasakit”, but the float failed to swim.

He allowed politics to percolate by itself, including the “Uniteam” between his daughter and a man he himself refused to endorse and even criticized for being a spoiled “cokehead”.

Now that the dam has burst, the political atmosphere will be toxic until 2028 regardless of what happens in 2025.

And with such toxicity, the economy will surely stagnate.

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