The government’s economic managers on Thursday revised the official inflation, fiscal and macro-economic targets.
“In line with the Development Budget Coordination Committee’s [DBCC] proactive efforts to continuously adapt to emerging domestic and global developments, the government’s medium-term macroeconomic assumptions, growth targets and fiscal program for fiscal years 2024- 2028 have been reviewed, and further recalibrated,” Department of Budget and Management (DBM) Secretary and DBCC co-chair Amenah Pangandaman said in a statement.
The 2024 inflation target was revised to between 3.0 and percent 4.0 percent from the original assumption of 2.0 percent to 4.0 percent.
“We are determined to achieve price stability and return to the target range of 2.0 to 4.0 percent from 2025 to 2028 through the proactive implementation of monetary policy measures and well-targeted government interventions that address the primary drivers of inflation,” the DBCC said.
The peso-dollar exchange rate assumption for 2024 was adjusted to 56 to 58 against the US dollar from 55 to 57 previously. “This is expected to broadly stabilize at 55 to 58 against the USD for the remainder of the medium term, given increasing tourism receipts, growing BPO revenues and robust overseas Filipinos remittances that will support and keep the currency stable and resilient against persisting global headwinds,” the DBCC said.
The DBCC revised the goods exports growth target to 5.0 percent from 3.0 percent in 2024, rising to 6.0 percent in 2025 to 2028.
The growth projections for goods imports were revised downwards to 2.0 percent in 2024 and 5.0 percent in 2025 amid moderation in international commodity prices alongside the impact of tight monetary policy tempering consumption and investment activity.
The DBCC expects the country’s gross domestic product to grow between 6.0 percent and 7.0 percent in 2024, expanding further to 6.5 to 7.5 percent in 2025, roughly consistent with the average growth forecasts of multilateral organizations.
Meanwhile, the Cabinet will propose a P6.532-trillion budget for 2025, up from this year’s P5.768 trillion allocation.
“This is equivalent to 22.0 percent of GDP and is 10.1 percent higher than the FY 2024 budget of P5.768 trillion,” Pangandaman said.
