OCTA notes region’s average daily cases at 89.42 percent, PH at ‘critical risk’
Independent researchers said Metro Manila was experiencing a “severe outbreak” of COVID-19 as the Philippines breached the 3-million mark in coronavirus infections Tuesday, with health officials reporting 28,007 new cases and warning that the country was now at “critical risk” for the respiratory disease.
The independent OCTA Research Group said the COVID-19 average daily attack rate (ADAR) in the National Capital Region (NCR) has increased to 89.42 percent, up from only 12.71 percent from Dec. 28, 2021 to Jan. 3, 2022. It then increased more than seven times in the Jan. 4 to 10 period.
“The average daily attack rate increased to 89.42, which is above the COVID Act Now threshold for a severe outbreak,” OCTA fellow Guido David said, referring to an independent US-based pandemic data analysis group.
ADAR pertains to the average number of new cases in a period per 100,000 people.
Of the 28,007 cases recorded yesterday, the Department of Health said 18,629 came from Metro Manila, which enjoyed bustling Christmas and New Year holidays as people freely entered malls and restaurants and families gathered for parties and reunions after nearly two years of isolation.
Health Secretary Francisco Duque III on Monday night said the Philippines has been classified as a critical risk for COVID-19 amid the sudden spike of infections believed to be driven by the Omicron variant.
Duque also said Omicron has already surpassed Delta as the dominant variant in the country based on the latest whole genome sequencing.
The seven-day positivity rate in the NCR, meanwhile, increased to 48 percent, David said.
“The reproduction number decreased to 5.22 from 5.65, which indicates the trend slowed down slightly,” he added.
Reproduction rate refers to the number of people who are infected by one case. A reproduction number that is below 1 indicates that the transmission of the virus is slowing down.
The health care utilization rate also rose to 57 percent this recent week as compared to the 27 percent from the previous week.
Intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy shot up from 29 percent in the Dec. 28 to Jan. 3 period, to 52 percent in the Jan. 4 to 10 period.
“Hospital bed occupancy increased to 57 percent and is likely to exceed 70 percent next week,” David said.
Overall, “NCR is classified as very high risk,” he said.
Based on the Department of Health (DOH) Monday COVID-19 bulletin, 52 percent of the 1,100 ICU beds and 67 percent of the 4,800 ward beds in the NCR were in use.
Meanwhile, 54 percent of the 4,700 isolation beds and 25 percent of the 1,000 ventilators in the NCR were in use.
DOH Undersecretary and treatment czar Leopoldo Vega also said the NCR currently has 6,595 health care workers all under quarantine because of COVID-19.
During a televised Palace briefing Tuesday, Vega said 7.2 percent of the 91,838 health care workers in NCR are in isolation.
“What hospitals do now, especially the bigger centers, is they close other services to redeploy the [healthcare workers] to areas needing assistance for Covid,” he said.
During President Rodrigo Duterte’s public address Monday night, Duque said the country was at a critical risk classification with an increase of 690 percent in the seven-day average daily reporting cases.
Based on the results of whole genome sequencing, he added, 60 percent of samples sequenced were positive for the Omicron variant, replacing Delta as the dominant variant.
Despite the rise in daily cases, he said, the number of severe and critical cases remained lower than they were during the previous peak in September 2021, he said.
Amid the surge in cases, Philippine officials vowed to accelerate vaccination of eligible individuals.
Vaccine czar Carlito Galvez Jr. said the government plans to fully vaccinate 90 million Filipinos against COVID-19.
The Philippines has currently vaccinated 52 million people, the government said Tuesday.
Galvez also said the government still needs to purchase 70 million doses for boosters and 26 million doses of vaccines for children aged 5 to 11 years old.
The Philippines logged 28,007 new COVID-19 infections Tuesday, the third highest daily count, bringing the country’s tally to 3,026,473.
The positivity rate was at 44.5 percent, based on test results of samples from 58,409 people on Jan. 9, Sunday, according to the DOH’s latest case bulletin.
There were 181,016 active cases, of which 5,521 were asymptomatic; 170,873 were mild; 2,863 were moderate; 1,464 were severe; and 295 were critical.
This was the highest active case count since the 184,088 infections on Sept. 18, 2021.
There were 219 new fatalities, bringing the COVID-19 death toll to 52,511.
The DOH also reported 4,471 new recoveries, bringing the total recoveries to 2,792,946.
Nationwide, 41 percent of ICU beds, 44 percent of isolation beds, 41 percent of ward beds, and 18 percent of ventilators, were in use.
In Metro Manila, 54 percent of ICU beds, 60 percent of isolation beds, 64 percent of ward beds, and 27 percent of ventilators, were in use.
Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said actual numbers may be even higher than what the data shows.
“I can really say honestly that it is just a fraction of what we see among cases in the country because we already know a lot of people are using antigen tests and the submission of these are incomplete,” Vergeire said in an interview with ABS-CBN News.
Despite Omicron being said to be less severe than Delta, Vergeire emphasized that the public should not take the new variant for granted.
She said it can still overwhelm the country’s health care system as there are still a lot of unvaccinated or partially-vaccinated people.
Meanwhile, Jomar Rebajante of the University of the Philippines Pandemic Response Team said the country may go back to its pre-Omicron levels by March.
“In terms of (National Capital Region), if we look at the projections, if let’s say we’re going to have the peak mid-January—it could start to decline,” Rabajante said in a mix of Filipino and English.
He said that this would start to decline just like in South Africa, which peaked on Dec. 17 and is still declining.
“We might experience the low-level, at pre-Omicron levels, at the earliest in the last week of February or March,” he said in Filipino.
Also on Tuesday, the Palace said the government will stick to targeted testing instead of mass testing to ensure that resources are not
depleted.
Acting presidential spokesman Karlo Nograles dismissed calls for mass testing, stressing the need for the government to be “smart” in terms of spending for the country’s COVID-19 response.
“We have to be mindful that the resources of the government are not unlimited,” he said in a mix of English and Filipino. “And we have to be smart in where we will put our resources.”
Aside from testing, the government must prioritize the procurement and purchase of vaccines that provide an added protection against
COVID-19, he said.
