"With Pimentel’s recent passing, is the federalist project still viable?"
"With Pimentel’s recent passing, is the federalist project still viable?"
The late Senator Aquilino "Nene" Pimentel Jr. was the most ardent advocate of a shift to a federal-parliamentary system of government to replace the unitary-presidential one that we have at present. He even sat as co-chair of the Consultative Committee that President Rodrigo Duterte convened to draft a new Constitution that would set into motion the shift to federalism. But with his recent passing, is the federalist project still viable?
Federalism's fervid advocates still insist that the shift to federalism would bring the country to a state of political, economic and social nirvana—or reasonably close to it—with the various regions, especially the poor ones, such as the former Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao and rechristened as the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region, Caraga and Bicol, enjoying sustained economic growth and well on the way to emancipation from poverty. But will it really?
First of all, there's the gargantuan economic cost of the shift, with no less than the National Economic and Development Authority saying last year that it would cost a whopping P253.5 billion, and this will be on top of the total cost of running the government.
Under two scenarios using the draft federal charter, Neda said the incremental cost of federalism would be a minimum of P156.6 billion and a maximum of P253.5 billion on average.
In the first year of implementation, an additional P10 billion would be spent on building new offices for each of the 18 federated regions. The incremental costs running to billions of pesos will cover personnel services, maintenance and other operating expenses, as well as the equalization fund equivalent to not less than 3 percent of the annual national budget.
The agency likewise warned that the proposed federal charter would lead to “inevitable disruptions to the economy’s growth momentum and progress in infrastructure improvement efforts,” and would bring about “fiscal pressures” and pressure on the budget deficit cap.
Neda's conclusion: The proposed shift would lead to “unquantifiable economic costs” and it would be “difficult to ascertain whether or not a federal structure will work in the Philippines.” Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto M. Pernia, who is also Neda Director General, had also earlier warned that the regions in the country are not ready for federalism, that the momentum of infrastructure improvement in the regions is going to be disrupted, and that the shift to federalism would entail immense expenditures, which may increase the fiscal deficit to gross domestic product ratio.
Other economic managers also take a dim view of a shift to a federal system at this point.
Finance Secretary Carlos G. Dominguez III has gone on record as saying that he is not totally opposing federalism as it is, but could not endorse the federal road map in its present form, based on the draft shown to him, citing its “adverse impact on fiscal space.” Dominguez told senators last year that the country’s positive credit rating may be put at risk if its proponents fail to address the fiscal issues related to the proposed shift to federalism. Rushing the transition to a federal system without addressing fiscal issues, he said, may result in a large deficit and imperil country’s credit rating.
Then Budget secretary and now Central Bank Governor Benjamin Diokno has opined that although he wanted the economy opened up, the draft Charter prepared by the Constitutional Committee “does not do that.” He said it would be key to a useful debate on federalism if there was a study “looking at various scenarios. We can’t just adopt a system of government without knowing the implications.”
For his part, Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana has also cautioned against rushing Cha-Cha and the shift to federalism, saying the government needs to conduct a comprehensive public information drive to let the people know how federalism works.
But it's not only top public officials who look askance at federalism. Last year, surveys indicated that three in four Filipinos do not approve of Charter change that would bring about the shift to a federal system of government as they are more concerned with coping with high prices, and getting or keeping a job so they can feed their families three square meals a day.
Filipinos also tend to look with suspicion at any attempt to revise the fundamental law as they fear that behind this are ulterior motives, including extending the term of elective officials. Initiatives by the Ramos and Arroyo administrations to change the 1987 Constitution, for instance, failed to take off as these were perceived to be nothing more than ill-disguised moves to extend their terms beyond their mandated six years without reelection.
There's also the very real fear that the shift to federalism, unless accompanied by a clear prohibition on political dynasties, would only strengthen their hold on political and economic power. As we know, new and old political families already dominate Congress. Once it transforms into a constituent assembly, would these political families willingly give up their positions of power? I seriously doubt it.
Given all this, I wouldn't be surprised at all that federalism has been effectively defenestrated and now practically dead in the water.
