Polls

"A communications strategy is the single most important consideration in a national campaign."

Pulse Asia released the results of its Ulat ng Bayan research done before Christmas last year, a week or so after Social Weather Stations did its own December measurement.

President Duterte is still riding high on the popularity wave.  The few points he lost when inflation hit the economy and people’s pocketbooks hard in the second and third quarters have been amazingly corrected in the fourth. The trust remains, despite “diarrhea” of the mouth, which then exiled Ninoy Aquino described to me in Boston in 1981 as an affliction of politicians, himself included.

But even the motormouth Ninoy of Tarlac could not out-mouth Rodrigo of Davao and Cebu.  Did Ninoy ever attack the lord bishops of the Roman Catholic Church? Maybe in private conversations, he mocked some.  But not in public, as Duterte the candidate and now, Duterte the President, does.

Yet amazingly, and perhaps miraculously even (do I blaspheme?), his ratings hold high. Very high.

But will this popularity rub off on the chances of his three favorite candidates for senator in the forthcoming elections, namely Bong Go, Bato de la Rosa, and Francis Tolentino?

In fine, will a Duterte endorsement ensure the victory of the three?

To begin with, there is a plethora of senatorial candidacies claiming the support of the president or his daughter Mayor Inday Sara. Who’s for real and who’s not, we have yet to know at this point in time.  There are the “sure” winners among them the reelectionists, with the exception of senators Grace and Nancy.  There is returning Pia Cayetano, by all measures a sure winner.  In short, this senatorial contest is “masikip.”

Depending on who you are talking to, there are only nine or 10 Duterte senatorial candidates, 14 (kuno) Inday Sara endorsees, and splinter PDP-Laban candidates claiming the same support, again kuno.

What is clear is the President’s expressed support for Bong, Bato and ‘Tol.

There are three important considerations: The organization (some call it machinery), the message, and the resources needed to run the organization and disseminate the message.

The resources are a function of winnability, unless the candidate has ample personal resources and is willing to expend these.  Senatorial candidates are not winner-take-all positions, like presidents, where the betting goes quite high.

Which is why the well-known names, especially the reeelectionists, have a built-in advantage. Their awareness levels are quite high, and the conversion to votes is all they have to worry about, which can be difficult if you are a non-performer, or have “baggage,” as in dirty linen, that would weigh you down.

Senatorial candidates have to build their own organization, because our political battlefield is party-less.  Other than giving candidates their legal bona-fides with Comelec, meaning their Certicates of Nomination and Acceptance, the party has no real organization unlike the Democrats or Republicans, the Conservatives or Labor in the more functional democracies.  Blame that on a dysfunctional Constitution.

That is where the president’s “bulong” matters.  The local candidates, especially the so-called warlords and dynasts, have personal organizations in their fiefdoms.  And a president who will be around for the next three years after the mid-term elections is one an LGU lord would not want to displease.  Paki-usap could be interpreted as command.

The leading “brands” have their own personal organizations, mostly herencias from previous campaigns, or from parents.  For instance, Sonny Angara could still call on the web of organizations his father, the late SEDJA built during his political career.  Ditto for Senadora Cynthia and other national brands.

But then again, the bulk of voters are not captive votes, or what some call “command” votes, which is becoming less and less relevant because of mainstream and social media.  The best example of the decreasing number of command votes is the amazing victory of Duterte over Roxas and Binay in the last electoral joust. Hardly any political figure supported the Davao mayor who quietly drew the attention of voters while everybody and his mother slept in the pancitan.

This is where the message becomes important. This is where a communications strategy is to me, the single most important consideration in a national campaign. In a local political milieu, organization or machinery, and the resources with which to oil it, may be all-important, especially in feudal sttings.

Disseminated properly, through the prudent and calculated use of tri-media, and a well-honed social media network, the right message will do the trick.

That message must fit the candidate’s personality or previous experience.

That message must appeal to the ordinary voter.  That message can have sub-messages targeted to specific audiences or sectors.  There are so many things to consider both in crafting and disseminating the “right” message.

Likewise, the communications strategy must be based on science. The surveys or public opinion polling is probably the best quantitative science one could utilize as tool for crafting and fine-tuning the communications strategy that would bring out the message one wants to be imprinted on the voters’ mind (and heart).

So read the opinion polls, not for ego-boosting, not for drawing bandwagons that could easily be destroyed by wise competition, but for crafting strategy and employing tactics.

This is my two cents’ worth from the confines of a foreign land.