"It's off to a great start."
"It's off to a great start."“‹
As aspirants for elective positions troop to Commission on Elections offices all over the country to file their respective certificates of candidacy, the focus now shifts from the highest inflation rate in recent years, Mocha Uson’s resignation, the Philippines getting elected to UN Human Rights Council, Kris Aquino’s alleged weakening immune system, the government’s war against illegal drugs, the Red October hysteria, to the country’s favorite pastime—the elections.
And what more opportune time for polling firms to release results of election surveys than during the period for filing of COCs?
Expectedly, different polling firms have come up with almost identical front runners for their senatorial survey in the 2019 political derby.
Social Weather Stations has Senator Cynthia Villar running first, followed by Senator Grace Poe-Llamanzares, Taguig Rep. Pia Cayetamno, Senator Koko Pimentel, returning Senators Lito Lapid , Jinggoy Estrada and Mar Roxas, incumbent Senators Nancy Binay and Sonny Angara, former PNP Chief Bato dela Rosa, former Senator Serge Osmeña and Ilocos Norte Gov. Imee Marcos.
Just within the winning circle are Senators Bam Aquino, JV Ejercito, presidential adviser on political affairs and former MMDA top honcho Francis Tolentino and special assistant to the president Bong Go.
Ed Malay’s The Center came up with almost identical results, although the results of his survey put Poe-Llamanzares edging Villar for first place.
Also, Osmeña missed Malay’s Top 12 as Tolentino took 12thplace, which is not surprising as while those landing in any polling firm’s top may have already been assured of getting elected (the only question is that of whether they would actually land in the ranking the polling firms placed them), it is actually the last three places where the race gets exciting.
In SWS’ survey, Number 10–12 placers garnered 24–25 percent of voters’ share while those landing in Numbers 13–16 got 12–22 percent.
With a margin of error of (plus/minus) 3.5 percent, the last three places are still actually up for grabs—although it might be a tall order for Go to overtake the 12th placer considering his low 12-percent share.
The rivalry between siblings Jinggoy and JV could also affect the final standing especially with the Supreme Court ruling allowing the prosecution in the former’s plunder case to use records from the AMLC to strengthen the case against him.
JV, in fact, despite landing outside the Top 12, could actually dislodge Jinggoy.
According to Malay, the negative publicity directed toward former President Noynoy Aquino and the Liberal Party, especially on social media, may have dampened Bam’s reelection bid.
Maly also took note of the surprise surge of Tolentino into the so-called Magic 12, citing this could be attributed to the effect of Tolentino’s sorties throughout the country in recent months. He said that Tolentino reportedly hit the campaign trail earlier than the others in an apparent bid to avoid a repeat of his 2016 experience.
As Presidential Political Adviser, Tolentino on many occasions represented the President
in the oath-taking of officials who were elected in the recent barangay elections. In recent weeks, Tolentino has been shuttling between Cagayan Province and Itogon, Benguet as head of the government’s relief efforts in the areas affected by Typhoon Ompong.
Malay said they rechecked the figures corresponding to Tolentino and his high visibility in these calamity-stricken areas as well as those delegated to him by the President account for this respectable showing in the pre-poll survey.
Actually, Tolentino’s entry into the winning circle, be it according to the SWS or Malay’s The Center Pulso ng Bayan, is not surprising considering the placed 13th in the 2016 senatorial elections, behind jailed Senator Leila de Lima. Tolentino ran as an Independent candidate without the support of any political party and a campaign that is hampered by lack of adequate logistics.
With regard to Go, President Rodrigo Duterte’s most trusted lieutenant, he has to work overtime if he indeed is serious in his political ambitions. He can take the cue from Senator Joel Villanueva who surprised political pundits when despite a poor showing in pre-election surveys, almost grabbed the top spot in the 2016 senatorial race.
It ain’t over until the votes have been cast and tallied, as they say. And the race is off to an exciting start.
