"It's virtually indisputable that the biggest cause for this decline was the crisis experienced with rice prices and shortages."
Speaking at the Palace recently before the oath-taking for new career executive service officers—our equivalent of a civil service mandarinate—President Duterte couldn’t help indulging in another one of his flights of rhetoric, when he asked the audience:
“Ano ang kasalanan ko? Nagnakaw ba ako diyan ni piso? Did I prosecute somebody na pinakulong ko? Ang kasalanan ko lang yung extrajudicial killings.”
Unfortunately, that last statement was like scraps of red meat thrown to the wolves. Immediately the usual critics—from UN rapporteur Agnes Callamard to Caloocan Archbishop Virgilio David to the hapless Senator Antonio Trillanes—were jumping all over Duterte’s supposed admission of guilt to EJKs.
We don’t suppose these folks will even listen to any other plausible explanation for this gaffe: that Duterte’s native language is neither English nor Tagalog; that he was just being “playful” (to hear Harry Roque tell it); or—if you want to construct a whole semantical tree—that all three statements are formally equivalent descriptions of various crimes being alleged or imputed, which was why Duterte didn’t see the need to qualify the EJK statement with “alleged.”
The critics and the snobs often forget that the President—behind his accent and his profanity—is a trained lawyer and a former fiscal/prosecutor. When his mouth seems to be running off, it’s likely that it’s because he has a good reason for doing so.
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What’s making the wolves take their red meat against Duterte wherever they can find it, is his continuing ability to confound.
When Pulse Asia conducted its third quarter survey from September 1-7, Duterte’s gross approval rating dropped by a full 13 points to 75 percent from 88 percent in June, while his gross trust rating dropped by an even higher 15 points to 72 percent from 87 percent in June. The declines were noted “across all geographic areas and socioeconomic groupings,” according to Pulse, with the biggest drops recorded in “Balance of Luzon” and socioeconomic Class D.
It’s virtually indisputable that the biggest cause for this decline was the crisis experienced with rice prices and shortages. This was also the reason for a similar sharp drop in former President Ramos’ ratings two decades ago.
Two weeks later, during SWS’ own third-quarter survey from September 15-23, Duterte’s gross satisfaction ratings moved in an entirely opposite direction. His gross score improved by 5 points to 70 percent, moving him up from “good” to “very good.” His net rating of +54 was a full 9 points above a personal record low of only +45 just last June.
True, there were likely differences in methodology as well as timing between the two surveys. But it seems reasonable to credit Duterte’s improvement in the SWS survey to any concrete measures his men may have taken to bring down inflation, as well as other subsequent developments like the revival of charges against Trillanes. If this was viewed positively by the public, the mutinous senator’s supporters may wish to think twice about sticking with him.
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The relationship between the two largest economies in the world has been souring in recent months, especially after US President Trump went through with his threat to slap huge tariffs on $200 billion worth of imports from China.
Last week, the US Air Force conducted B-52 bomber flights over the disputed South China Sea region. Japanese fighter jets escorted the bombers on Tuesday as they made their way through the desolate Diaoyu Islands, which are controlled by Japan but claimed by China. A senior US military official proclaimed that “the United States military will continue to fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows at times and places of our choosing.”
The trade war is clearly spilling over into the military arena, with China protesting recent US arms sales to Taiwan, after the US instituted sanctions on Chinese officials over their purchase of Russian military equipment. And now the rest of the region is being pulled into a tug-of-war between both giants.
Last week, after co-chairing a US-ASEAN ministerial meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, US Deputy Secretary of State John Sullivan said that the meeting “reaffirmed the US-ASEAN strategic partnership and discussed US commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific region with ASEAN at its center.”
Around the same time, speaking in Makati at the 69th anniversary of China’s founding, Chinese Ambassador Zhao Jianhua said that “we firmly count on the Philippines to bring China-Asean cooperation and East Asia regional cooperation to a new high,” after the Philippines had earlier agreed to assume the role of China-Asean country coordinator last August.
And over at Camp Aguinaldo, at the annual meeting of the Mutual Defense and Security Engagement Boards of both countries, the Armed Forces announced that Manila and Washington had agreed to a higher number of 281 security cooperation activities next year, including military to military drills, tabletop exercises, visits and exchanges.
The tightrope that Duterte decided to walk between the US and China is now swaying ever more violently. If the US escalates its naval forays ostensibly in support of ASEAN, China may expect us to persuade ASEAN to express concern.
At the same time, China will be watching closely the conduct of those 281 military exercises—20 more than this year—between us and our oldest ally. This may seem risky now, but over the long term may actually be a good thing, since it puts some muscle behind our nominally non-aligned foreign and security policy.
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Last week, the famously thin-skinned community of U.P. Diliman was up in arms over the mysterious “intrusion” of three uniformed policemen on campus. University President Danny Concepcion wrote PNP chief Director General Oscar Albayalde to express the “deep alarm” of his precious constituency.
Well, it turns out that the three cops were not there to arrest or intimidate anyone. As a matter of fact, they were simply looking for student-trainees who might be able to help improve a museum inside Camp Crame. In other words, they were offering paid job training for a worthy cause.
To his credit, Albayalde was profusely apologetic. But, really, he shouldn’t have been. The last thing the famously inflated egos need at their famously tax-subsidized “Republic of Diliman” is more of the same special treatment that over the decades has convinced them they deserve to be outside the reach even of the long arm of the law.
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