Days before the Permanent Court of Arbitration decides on the case, an independent think tank said a decision favorable to the Philippines on the South China Sea dispute will strengthen a non-military scenario, and pave the way toward further diplomacy.
“If we get the verdict we expect, it is imperative to cull the best thinking on different post-arbitration scenarios and initiate dialogue on strategically approaching geopolitical, economic, and social changes in the region.” said Dindo Manhit, president of the Stratbase Albert del Rosario Institute.
“On an immediate term, the Philippines must capitalize on the international interest in the case to garner international support for its position and elicit strong statements from other countries. While we pursue diplomatic initiatives, the Philippines needs to take steps to protect itself from any adverse Chinese reaction.
“On a medium term, we need to make peace and foster a new era of engagement with China based on mutual respect and the rule of international law,” Manhit said.
Stratbase ADRi Trustee and International Criminal Court Justice Raul Pangalangan said filing the case was a game changer for the Philippines, which would have been at a disadvantage in a bilateral setup.
“In a David versus Goliath scenario, the Philippines would have been helpless; by filing the case, we have shifted it from a two-party settlement and submitted it to a third-party decision maker in the tribunal,” he said.
Subjecting the case to arbitration also undermined the military aspect of the dispute and instead highlighted the primacy of international law, Pangalangan said, which becomes a venue for alliance-building.
“It will provide our neighbors in Asia and our allies abroad a neutral ground upon which to take a position on the issue. In other words, without states saying ‘China is right’ or ‘Philippines is right,’ we provide even the erstwhile hesitant Asean states an opportunity to take a decision without riling China’s sensitivities.”
But getting other, more capable countries involved in the case is something that China doesn’t like, said Renato de Castro, also an ADRi Trustee.
“The Philippines has sought closer security arrangements with the US and Japan, which have shown interest in providing security and diplomatic support to the Philippines.”
If you have both the US and Japan involved, it might further complicate the dispute as this makes China more belligerent and more uncompromising in dealing with the Philippines, especially after the case was filed.
ADRi will host a forum with the UP Institute for Maritime Affairs and Law of the Sea on the subject on July 15, 9 a.m. at the Malcolm Theater of the UP College of Law in Diliman. Entitled “Upholding the Law of the Sea Convention and the Post-Arbitration Philippine Challenge,” the forum will be graced by international experts.
