Moody’s Analytics, a research agency which operates independently of Moody’s Investors Service, said Monday the Philippine economy likely slowed in the second quarter from the previous period.
“We expect Philippine GDP to grow 6 percent year-on-year, slowing from the 6.4 percent pace in the first quarter,” it said in its Asia-Pacific Economic Preview for the week.
“Easing inflation and a tight labor market will power household consumption,” it said.
Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority showed the GDP grew by 6.4 percent in the first quarter, one of the fastest in the Asian region, despite the elevated inflation that impacted consumer spending.
The PSA will release the second-quarter GDP report Thursday.
Inflation peaked at 8.7 percent in January 2023 but eased in the succeeding months. Latest data showed it softened to a 16-month low of 4.7 percent in July.
The International Monetary Fund earlier raised its 2023 growth forecast for the Philippines to 6.2 from 6 percent in April 2023. The projection falls within the 6 percent to 7 percent growth forecast announced by the interagency Development Budget Coordinating Committee.
The IMF revised downward its 2024 growth forecast to 5.5 percent from 5.8 percent because of global headwinds and lagged effects of policy tightening.
Data showed the economy grew by a 46-year high of 7.6 percent in 2022 on the back of reinvigorated economic activity due to the reopening of the economy to greater normalcy.
The government earlier maintained its growth assumption of 6.5 to 8 percent for 2024 to 2028, taking into account the risks posed by El Nino and other natural disasters, global trade tensions, value chain disruptions and other factors.
