The makings of war

"Will China learn from history?"

The Chinese ambassador to Manila, Zhia Jin Wa, claims China is not creating trouble in the South China Sea.  

Yet, China is stirring the pot for all the makings of a brew for. It is militarizing the area by making military bases out of the small islands and rock formations.  

China better be careful because while it is a rising world power, it is courting military action from the United States.  

All the conditions for a war to happen are there. US President Trump with all his looming impeachment troubles could use a strike against China to distract developments in Congress.  

China, too, might have pushed the limits of global patience because of its bullying tactics in the South China Sea.

It must remember that the US considers itself as a Pacific power which was why General George Dewey sailed into Manila Bay to confront Spain—then already on the run from Filipino revolutionaries. 

Is China capable of a confrontation with the US?  I don't think so. Given all the fire power and nuclear capability of America, China could be blown to smithereens.   The US is not one to hesitate in using its nuclear or atomic bomb as shown when it dropped them in Hiroshima and Nagasaki to end World War II, giving Japan no room but to surrender.  

China may have like-minded countries like North Korea and Russia. But North Korea is only a puppet and proxy pitbull of China while Russia, with its own territorial dispute and differences with China, may not be too keen to join a war that would distract it from restoring itself into the former Soviet empire.  

Besides, China, with its internal problems in the millions of Hong Kong protesters, plus restiveness in other parts of its own provinces, might be too much to handle at this time.  

The US would or could intervene because China is threatening to impede the flow of cargo ships in the South China Sea.

This would be a disaster for global trade due to cargo being carried such as oil, manufacturing supplies and finished products from Asia to Europe. 

So much for the Chinese agenda for hemogeny in the region.  The US will not allow or it will lose the confidence of US treaty allies like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Philippines.  These treaties  plus other mutual defense pacts have been affirmed by US presidents who have gone on official visits to these countries.

Great Britain, despite its own domestic woes in its plan to exit from the European Union, will not allow a violent  crackdown in Hong Kong, its former crown colony.  Britain is a traditional military ally of America since the US took the British side in World War II against Nazi Germany.   World War II started in 1939 when Nazi Germany invaded Poland.   Heady with its unopposed invasion of Poland, Germany decided to train its guns and bombers on Britain.  But enough is enough as the Germans learned when the US stepped in to help defend Britain.

US and Britain assembled an allied force to land on the beaches of Normandy and also liberate Nazi occupied France—and the rest is history. 

Let us see if China will take a lesson from history and rethink its strategy in the South China Sea.

Meanwhile, President Rodrigo Duterte is making a second visit to Moscow sometime this week.  Let's hope he comes back with a reassurance from President Vladimir Putin that Russia will not widen the strife in th South China Sea by taking sides.  Russia will be a good market for Philippine products especially fruits and vegetables which the Russians cannot grow abundantly because of its harsh winter season.  

What can we get from Russia? Perhaps agricultural equipment like tractors and backhoes, to improve our agriculture output especially in Mindanao.  Militarily, the Philippines can purchase weapons like the Kalasnikov, fighter jets and missiles for the country's self defense.  If so, then the US might sell us more sophisticated weapons instead of the hand-me-downs  that they give us.  

As a journalist invited by the World Press Institute, I saw for myself the US capability for war starting from the launching of the first Apollo moonshot from Cape Canaveral, Florida, to the intricate tracking of US targets against enemies at NORAD inside the mountains of Denver, Colorado and the Strategic Air Command in Omaha, Nebraska.

Now, who wants war? The US would undoubtedly say "Bring it on."

Even if military war does not happen between China and the US, a trade war involving higher tariffs is already affecting Chinese manufactured goods to US and Europe.  It cannot depend on local consumption alone.

The Chinese would rather spend money on food and believe it or not, on high end luxury goods like flashy imported cars and electronic gadgets.