Political trivia

"Will this be a historic leap?"

 

It would seem that all’s well that ends well in the Senate.  The 24 “republics” seem to have reached an agreement to maintain the status quo in its leadership, with Senate President Tito Sotto remaining at the helm.

No one really aspired for the position anyway, and the much-publicized “threat” about Senator Cynthia Villar, the latest senatorial topnotcher, seeking to unseat Sotto was just a stick floated by some who wanted certain carrots in the form of committee chairmanships.

In the lower house meanwhile, the political waters continue to roil. Accusations followed by denials about vote-buying with fantastic sums thicken the air when in reality everyone just awaits with bated breath he decision of their audience of one—the part-time resident of the Palace beside the Pasig.

With Congress leadership seemingly “settled,” speculative whispers by the political cognoscenti (or those who have such pretensions) have now begun on the subject of those who are casting moist eyes on the presidency which will be up for grabs in 2022, three years down the road.

With the President’s exceedingly high popularity levels, the betting is on Davao City Mayor Sara Z. Duterte to succeed her father in Malacañang, with the latter’s blessings, of course.  If that happens, it would be a first in our  political history, where daughter succeeds father to the presidency, mismo.

But first, let me recall what political analyst and former investment banker Tony Gatmaitan once called the “regla” or rule of presidents elected by our people.

His thesis was that only those whose names had an “el,” or “os,” or “on” get elected or succeed in becoming president of the land.

He began with Manuel Luis Quezon (Emilio Aguinaldo of the First Republic was not elected). Note the “el” in Manuel and the “on” in Quezon.  He was succeeded by his vice president, Sergio Osmena, who had an “os” in his surname.

Even if we were to factor in Jose P. Laurel, the wartime Second Republic President, there was an “os” and an “el” in the names.  Manuel A. Roxas defeated Osmeña to become the first president of the third republic. Notice the “el” in Manuel.

Roxas died of a heart attack while inside the Clark Airbase in Pampanga, and was succeeded by Elpidio Quirino, whose first name began with an “el.” He was elected in 1949 over Laurel, but when he ran for reelection in 1953, Ramon Magsaysay with the “on” in his first name won.

Ramon died in an airplane accident in Cebu, and Bohol’s Carlos P. Garcia, with an “os” to his name, succeeded.  Running for election, he won in 1957.  But seeking reelection in 1961, Garcia lost to Diosdado P. Macapagal.  Note again the “os” in Diosdado.

Macapagal served only one term of four years, because Ferdinand Marcos defeated him in 1965.  Marcos ruled for almost 21 years, two-thirds of that under his declared martial rule.  And after his political arch-enemy Benigno A. Aquino Jr. died in the tarmac of the international airport, it was his widow Corazon with the “on” who unseated the dictator after a military break-away upon EDSA.

Then in 1992, she anointed her successor, Fidel V. Ramos, with the “el” and the “os,” narrowly defeating Miriam Defensor Santiago with nary an el-os-on. FVR anointed Jose de Venecia in turn, but his “os” was weaker than veritable “tocayo” Joseph Ejercito Estrada.

It was in 2001 when the Gatmaitan “regla” was broken, when Vice President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo succeeded Estrada after the EDSA Dos coup.  Seeking legitimacy in 2004, GMA won over Fernando Poe, who also did not have the el-os-on to his name. GMA ruled for nine years, when in 2010, her anointed Gilberto Cojuangco Teodoro lost to Benigno Simeon Aquino, son of Ninoy and Cory.  Maybe his use of the second Christian name Simeon instead of the mother’s Cojuangco brought him luck, even against Joseph Estrada and  Manuel Villar, both with the fabled letters.

Then in 2016, an earlier laughed-out candidate from left field, Mayor Rodrigo Roa Duterte, with nary an el-os-on in any of his names, triumphed over Manuel Araneta Roxas with the “el” and Grace Sonora Poe with the “on,” even the incumbent veep Jejomar Binay.

Tony Gatmaitan’s regla has been broken not once but twice.  Quien sera, 2022?

In the pre-martial law years,  presidents came from the Senate, even if they were in the lower house previously, as speaker or senate president even.  Ramon Magsaysay broke the tradition that the legislature was breeding ground for presidents. Though Magsaysay was a one-term congressman, it was when President Quirino plucked him into the Cabinet as Defense secretary that the “guy” became legendary.

Two congressmen followed Magsaysay, Garcia of Bohol and Macapagal of Pampanga. But Marcos went from congressman to senator to Senate President, restoring the traditional source of presidents being from Congress.

Until the grieving widow Cory unseated him, and then bequeathed the leadership to another defense secretary, her FVR.  Erap was mayor, then senator, then vice president before he was elected president by a wide, wide margin, losing his seat via a military coup two years and seven months after, to his vice president, the daughter of a one-term president who started elective office as senator,  then vice president.

After GMA,  it was a senator, an Aquino, who was brought to power by the emotional wave of sympathy over the death of his mother months before elections.  But nobody predicted that a city mayor from largely forgotten Mindanao would bring back both the Bisaya (after Boholano Garcia) nation and Mindanao to leadership prominence after a long, parched desert of neglect.

Two presidential scions, a Macapagal and an Aquino,  but winning after a long interval from the primacy of their father or mother.

Will Sara Zimmerman Duterte be the first presidential daughter to immediately succeed the presidency of her father come June 30, 2022?

Will the President bless such a historic leap?