In an opinion piece in Time Magazine, former president of the Soviet Union Mikhail Gorbachev raised the specter of a third world war. Gorby is best remembered as the last man to preside over the then Soviet empire. His conciliatory move defanged the powerful Soviet empire with his policy of Perestroika which restructured the top leadership of the Communist Party. Doing so created a more stable world order but it also saw the dissolution of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.
Gorbachev cautioned both Russia and the US of the looming arms race wherein funds are readily found for developing more powerful nuclear weapons while money meant for social and humanitarian causes are getting scarce. He suggested US President Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin take the initiative in the United Nations Security Council to pass a resolution for a nuclear weapons moratorium. Gorbachev, however did not make mention of China’s military buildup in Southeast Asia and North Korea’s nuclear saber-rattling. Yet, it is the simmering territorial dispute in the South China Sea which has turned the region into a virtual power keg.
China reclaimed land from the sea to build artificial islands to install military facilities such as an airstrip and naval stations to advance its aggressive nine-dash line claiming nearly 90 percent of the South China Sea. The seabed under the SCS is seen as potentially rich in oil, mineral and gas which could make a rising China more powerful in the region, if not the world.
Is the world in 2017 really hurtling toward self destruction with the rise of Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and North Korea’s Kim Jong-Un? Let’s not forget our own belligerent and bellicose Rodrigo Duterte who’s adding to the heady mix of loose cannons by aligning himself with China and Russia.
But let me go back to Gorbachev and his Perestroika policy which helped him win the Nobel Peace Prize in 1988. Only 54 when he stepped into the Soviet presidency, Gorbachev had a new outlook and applied a new approach to the challenges that faced his country. Perestroika, which means restructuring was the key word that Gorbachev used to undertake major internal reforms that were matched by new directions in foreign policy. Although he and US President Ronald Reagan were diametrically opposed as leaders of the free world and communism, they found common ground to hold five summits between 1985 and 1988 that resulted in the signing of the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 1997 that reduced Russia’s and the US nuclear stockpile.
Boris Yeltsin foiled a military coup that tried to remove Gorbachev from power as the old order saw the peril of Gorby’s wide policy of reform. Perestroika has reached the other republics and loosened the Soviet grip on its other satellites states.
In a speech at the United Nations, Gorbachev astounded the world when he declared that all the other countries under the Soviet Union should be free to choose and form their own republics. On Dec. 25, 1991, Gorbachev resigned from the presidency of a nation that no longer existed as the Soviet empire dissolved into 15 individual republics. The world owes Gorbachev that much.
But the world is again in flux with the ascendancy of Donald Trump as US president. The man is prone to riling other countries with his abrasive tone and unpredictable foreign policy. There is reason to be concerned with the statement of White House Secretary Sean Spicer that North Korea’s intercontinental ballistic missile test “won’t happen.” Does that mean a preemptive US strike at Pyongyang?
What about the US pledge to protect international shipping lanes from falling into the clutches of China? Is the US ready to confront China to protect its own interests as a Pacific power which was the compelling reason for its pivot to Asia? These are vexing questions that can only be answered by America’s response to the global challenges confronting it and the rest of the world.
At the UN, the European Union is trying to verify reports Trump is going to lift economic sanctions on Russia. Although on the surface that looks conciliatory, in fact an act of appeasement, EU members see the move as removal of the world sanctions for Russia’s territorial grab of Crimea from Ukraine.
Because of his announcement to build a wall along the US-Mexican border to prevent illegal migrants from south of the border, Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto cancelled a planned meeting with Trump at the White House. While this may seem a minor border and migration problem, the issue could alienate Mexico to seek alliances with other countries, Russia and China included.
How would this affect the staunch US Monroe doctrine to keep off hostile powers from gaining a foothold in South America? Recall that President John F. Kennedy almost went to war with Russia when Nikita Kruschev installed Russian missile launching pads in Cuba. Mexico is nearer and shares a border with the US. This is an even more serious threat if it falls into unfriendly hands.
